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Andreas Zanin
Analysis | April 26, 2021

FOREX exotic currencies: USD/SEK, USD/PLN & USD/NOK

In our previous post, we noted the reaction to the Euro at the ECB meeting and our view is the Euro will probably top out and move lower – If it does the euro correlated proxy currencies should move lower with it In this post we will look at the outlook for USD/SEK, USD/PLN and USD NOK.

In our view the USD has hammered out support in all 3 pairs and is a good risk to reward buy on a breakout above resistance.

USD/SEK

We view Tuesday’s candle as a possible reversal candle with the dip lower to a new near term low seeing no follow-through selling and we bounced back above the 8.400 level. We are trading in low volatility and now looking for 8.400 to hold on a close basis and if we break resistance we expect the whole recent decline to be retraced.

USD/PLN

 We are trading in low volatility but have worked our way higher this week despite the market view of the ECB being bullish for the EUR and the proxies. We view the USD as a buy on a breakout and if we do break higher we expect a change from low to high volatility and a retracement of the whole recent sell-off.

USD/NOK

 Just like in the SEK we view Tuesday’s blue candle as a possible exhaustion of selling – we made a new daily low and have no bounced back. The last 3 days have seen 3 low volatility candles as we hold support and trade below the 8.400 resistance level. If we break out we expect a move up on higher volatility to recent highs. In terms of the NOK its also influenced by crude oil and we are looking for crude oil to correct which is bearish for the USD and bullish for the NOK

 

 

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