Gold: after an impressive rally, is the race over?

Introduction

In recent weeks, gold has returned strongly to the spotlight, recording one of the most brilliant performances among all asset classes. Since the beginning of the year, the precious metal has gained over 24% YTD, consolidating its position as a safe-haven asset par excellence in a particularly unstable macroeconomic and geopolitical context.

According to the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) of the World Gold Council, the main drivers of the rally have been:

• Weakness of the US dollar: driven by the strengthening of the euro and expectations of a potential monetary policy easing by the Fed.
• Increase in geopolitical risk: particularly linked to trade tensions and fears of new tariffs.
• Positive ETF flows: Gold ETF purchases continued at a steady pace in March, with contributions from all regions. U.S. funds led the way with $6 billion (67t) in net inflows, followed by Europe and Asia with approximately $1 billion each.
• Technical momentum: which attracted further speculative flows.The chart below highlights how, in March, the combined effect of risk, opportunity cost related to rates, and momentum pushed the price of gold to new highs.

Long-Term Analysis

Looking at the long-term trend, it is evident that the current rally, while impressive, has not yet surpassed in intensity either that of 2011 or the post-pandemic rally of 2020, as clearly shown in the following chart.

In terms of duration and magnitude, the major rallies of the past have delivered returns far superior to the current one, suggesting that — should the macro conditions persist — there could still be room for further upside.

Technical Analysis – Gold Future (GC), H4 timeframe

Turning to technical analysis, the GC contract (Gold Futures, expiry 06-2025) recently marked a high around $3,509/oz, then retraced and is currently consolidating in the $3,350/oz area.

Based on the volume profile map (see chart), the following key areas are identified:

• Main value area: 3,378–3,270 (central HVN: 3,343)
• Upper area: 3,378–3,509 (central HVN: 3,431)
• Lower area: 3,270–3,200 (central HVN: 3,238)

The technical structure remains positive, but the outlook is heavily influenced by macro dynamics.

Support Levels

• The first significant support lies in the 3,270 area.
• In case of a breakdown, the next levels are 3,238, 3,190 (corresponding to the composite VAH), and finally the 3,060–3,050 area, which shows intense negative delta peaks.
• Further down, we find a cluster of supports between the VWAP (yellow) and POC (magenta) of the composite, with the psychological level of $3,000/oz as a crucial threshold, along with several additional negative delta peaks. A confirmed breakdown of this level would question the current bullish trend.

Resistance Levels

• On the upside, the first resistance is at 3,383–3,414, followed by the 3,451 area.
• Breaking the all-time high would open the door to a potential price discovery phase, with no volumetric references above this level.

Conclusion

The market environment still appears favorable for a continuation of gold’s bullish trend, thanks to a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technical factors. However, from a strictly operational standpoint, buying at current levels could be risky, given the evident overbought condition of the precious metal. The best approach might be to wait and observe price behaviour at the identified support levels before considering long entries.

Moreover, it will be crucial to monitor:

• The actions of central banks (especially the Fed
• The evolution of global tension
• Investment flows into gold-related products (ETFs and futures)

From an operational standpoint, maintaining a cautious approach anchored to the volume structure seems to be the most sensible strategy in the current market phase. A breakout above the all-time high could mark the beginning of a new structural bullish leg. A breakdown below $3,000, however, would put the trend into question.