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Andreas Zanin
Analysis, Market Analysis | January 26, 2024

JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 26-01-2024

EUR/USD Struggles after ECB & Positive US GDP

Market Movers

  • The US economy displayed unexpected resilience with a 3.3% annualised growth rate in Q4 2023, surpassing forecasts and easing recession concerns.
  • The euro fell to a fresh six-week low against the dollar, reacting to the European Central Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4%.
  • The S&P 500 continued its record-breaking streak, buoyed by well-received US GDP data and strong consumer spending.
  • Tech stocks continue to outperform but could see some pressure following Intel’s disappointing revenue forecast, which sent its shares tumbling.
  • Crude oil prices rose, influenced by robust US economic data and escalating tensions in the Red Sea region.

What’s Happening

US Economic Resilience Drives Optimism

The unexpected strength of the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023, marked by a 3.3% annualised growth rate, has infused optimism into the markets. This robust growth, primarily driven by consumer spending, challenges the narrative of an impending recession and suggests a more resilient economic landscape than anticipated.

Euro’s Struggle Against the Dollar

The European Central Bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady has impacted the euro, leading to a slide against the strengthening US dollar. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s cautious stance on rate cuts, combined with concerns over European growth prospects continues to pressure the European currency.

Wall Street’s Record-Breaking Rally

Wall Street’s major indices, especially the S&P 500, have been reaching new heights, propelled by the encouraging US GDP data. This rally reflects investor confidence in the US economy’s ability to achieve a ‘soft landing’ despite previous recession fears and ongoing interest rate discussions.

Tech Sector Faces Intel’s Ripple Effect

The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, faced a downturn after Intel’s revenue forecast fell short of expectations. This news adversely affected investor sentiment across global tech markets, indicating the sector’s sensitivity to individual corporate performances.

Oil Prices Respond to Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices experienced a significant upturn, responding to a combination of positive US economic data and increasing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea.

Econ Calendar

  • Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment (Feb)
  • France Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • Earnings Reports
  • US Tech Giants’ Financial Results
  • Federal Reserve Meeting

Chart of the Day

They try to defend just above 4900. I close half and move SL to BE (also slightly widening the TP to 4874 spot price. The spot-future spread is 27 points, so make the relevant adjustments.

Source: Matteo Marchetti, KTM Market Analyst

For all the latest market developments follow Matteo @MMTradingKTM and Key to Markets @keytomarkets on Telegram

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