We looked at Crude oil in a previous post and expected it to top out into big monthly resistance at 75.00, we ran on to 76.00 but we have now fallen back quickly below 75.00 and expect a big decline going forward. Our view of the fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals below…
Fundamentals and Sentiment
“Oil-producing nations have agreed to increase their output, with the aim of reducing prices and easing pressure on the world economy. The Opec cartel and partners such as Russia will boost supply from August after prices climbed to two-and-half-year highs during the pandemic.” ( BBC NEWS)
Under the new deal, Opec and partners have agreed to increase supply by another two million barrels per day from August until December 2021. While traders are of course focused on OPEC there is actually is NO supply shortage of oil there is plenty of supply. In terms of crude oil, + 70% of all volatility is driven by speculation and without speculators, crude oil would hardly move…
Oil like many other commodities have soared due to speculative interest two as charts from MPAS below and quote from the TME which they made before the OPEC deal:
“Spec long positioning across the NYMEX complex remains out of sync with flat price gains and open interest is in direct “die-vergence’ to the vaccine rainbow (VR) narrative. Seems like even the perma VR oil bulls are figuring out that it is “supply discipline” not “supply deficit”. Remember all rainbows are illusionary.” (The ME)
L’accordo OPEC è comunque un grande colpo psicologico per i tori del petrolio e siamo anche molto rialzisti sul dollaro per una maggiore forza che è ribassista per il petrolio greggio e tutte le altre materie prime.
In termini di USD, la scorsa settimana gli speculatori hanno acquistato 4,4 miliardi di USD, dopo un acquisto netto di 2,4 miliardi di USD nella settimana precedente e ci aspettiamo che questa copertura corta continui:
Analisi tecnica
Sul grafico mensile, abbiamo una solida resistenza ora a 75.00 dopo l’esaurimento della coda sopra di essa e siamo caduti indietro dal livello 75.00. I grandi livelli di supporto sono 60.00 con una possibile corsa indietro a 40.00. Sul grafico giornaliero vediamo il rally del petrolio greggio fallire di nuovo verso i livelli di resistenza indicati obiettivi – 60.00 poi 52.00, con una possibile corsa verso il basso a lungo termine al grande supporto mensile a 40.00 dollari.
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