“Joe Biden holds a lead in national polling over President Donald Trump. The former vice president earned 52% of support from registered voters compared to 42% for the president. In swing states, where the election will be decided, polling averages are tighter than the national polls.” (CNBC)
We have not had much volatility in the run-up to the election, but we should see it increase now as we come into the result. “This is one of the biggest events of the year. The uncertainty here makes the trading interesting.” (Dennis Dick, proprietary Bright Trading LLC.) It certainly does and volatility should now pick up as we come into the election result…
An alternative scenario will be looking for a Trump victory or a narrow win for Biden which would be disputed by the loser. Both eventualities are in our view USD bullish.
In recent videos we have looked at USD/CHF Buy Above 0.9200, EUR/USD Sell below 1.1600, AUD/USD sell below 0.7000. These are big levels and if taken out we would expect a big move in favour of the USD.
In terms of two other major pairs – USD/CAD and GBP/USD we have seen some USD weakness today and view the USD as a buy on strength:
USD/CAD Day: The 1.300 level is major support, and we expect it to hold on a close basis: We would look to be long above 1.3200 for a move up to 1.3700 possible run on to 1.400. Stop well clear of 1.300 support. If we were to go through 1.300, we would buy back above the level with a stop behind the 1.2800 level.
GBP/USD Daily Chart: We are at the 1.300 level and would look to sell if the level holds below 1.2800, stop back behind 1.300, or if we break above 1.3030 back through the 1.300 level stop behind resistance indicated – Target on both trades would be major support at 1.2500.
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