US OPENING BELL 08-07-2022
US INDICES SETS FOR A LOWER OPEN AHEAD OF THE CASH OPENING BELL; THE EURO COLLAPSED AGAIN BEFORE A SLIGHT RETRACEMENT
US equities are set for a downward opening this Friday, with investors waiting for crucial US labour market data that will likely provide valuable information on the Fed’s next moves, for which the market is already largely discounting a 75 bps rate hike. NFP expectations are for 268k versus 390k the previous month, but it will probably take a far cry from expectations for the dollar to retrace significantly.
Unfortunately, this morning also confirmed the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe. As is well known, this kind of news brings uncertainty, which the stock markets certainly do not like. On top of that, political uncertainty in the UK continues, with bookmakers favouring Ben Wallace and Rishi Sunak for the Conservative party’s leadership after PM Boris Johnson was forced to resign yesterday.
Regarding the macroeconomic calendar, this afternoon, a part of the mentioned US NFP will also be released the average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate, along with the Canadian employment change and unemployment rate.
EURUSD, M15
The EURUSD failed to remain above the main intraday support around the 1.0145 mark and dropped to the new current weekly VAL posting another multi-yearly low. After that, it bounced back and is now retesting the old support, which has become the main intraday resistance area. From a technical point of view, as long as prices remain below the 1.0145 mark and, more generally, below the current weekly POC, the short-term trend remains bearish, and the most likely scenario is a drop to the parity. Prices are now close to the psychological threshold par excellence of 1.00, and in these cases, the likelihood of a level test is usually high. On the other hand, if prices can retrieve the main intraday resistance, a deeper pullback to the current weekly POC is expected.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0086, 1.0050, 1.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0145, 1.0188.
S&P500, M30
Ahead of the NFP release, the S&P500 is trading above the current weekly Value Area, which can be considered a positive bias for today, as already mentioned. After some uncertainty, it is trying to consolidate above the main intraday support, given by the LVN around the 3892 mark. The more prices remain above that area, the more the likelihood of another rise to target the area around the 3945 mark is. On the flip side, should the index break the LVN downward and come back inside the current weekly Value Area, a drop is expected until the W-1 VAH (around the 3846 mark).
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 3892, 3874, 3846, 3831-3824.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 3945, 4000.
