US OPENING BELL 12-07-2022
US STOCKS EDGE LOWER AFTER A FIRST-HALF NEGATIVE EUROPEAN SESSION; EURUSD HITS PARITY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2002; ZEW RELEASED AT ITS LOWER LEVEL SINCE DECEMBER 2011
US stocks are expected to open lower this afternoon in the wake of a negative first half of the European session. The Zew index contributed to the declines, as it was released this morning at -53.8 against a forecast of -38.3. For analysts and institutional investors, the six-month outlook is certainly not looking the brightest.
The EURUSD finally touched the target expected for days, i.e. parity, and temporarily seems to have found some support from buyers (or, more likely, the slight rebound is due to closures of short positions). However, they are unlikely to be strong enough to sustain the market in the long run.
Oil fell more than 4 per cent again on concerns of new lockdowns in China and possible global economic slowdowns that could cool demand for crude oil.
Regarding the macroeconomic calendar, the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook release and the BoE Governor’s speech are scheduled for later this afternoon.
EURUSD, M15
The EURUSD touched the psychological level of 1.00, starting to pull back probably due to various profit-taking combined with buyers trying to support the exchange rate above parity. The pair is currently trading inside the current weekly Value Area and above the current weekly POC, which can be considered a positive bias for the rest of the day. Anyway, the medium-term trend remains negative. From a technical point of view, the main intraday support is now the area between the current weekly POC and the current weekly VAL, while the main intraday resistance is the area between the W-1 VAL and the current weekly VAH. As long as prices remain between these two areas, the most likely outlook is a sideways trend, with the pair bouncing between support and resistance. On the downside, other drops are expected if the pair break below the 1.00 mark to target lower support around 0.98 and 0.9750. On the upside, only if the pair can break the most significant resistance upward a notable pullback is expected.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0011-1.00.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0085-1.0087, 1.0135.
S&P500, M30
The S&P500 continues to edge lower and found support around the W-1 VAL. From a technical point of view, the most significant intraday support area is the W-1 VAL, while the main resistance area is the current weekly VAL. If prices remain above the main support, the most likely scenario is a comeback inside the current weekly Value Area between the 3848 and the 3869 mark. On the flip side, if prices fail to hold the W-1 VAL, they will probably target the uncovered POC around the 3755 mark in the medium term.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 3818, 3755.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 3848, 3869, 3895.
