KTM Commodity Weekly: Neither technical nor the fundamentals helping

Improving risk Sentiment: The Brent crude oil rise more than 2% after doctors said U.S. President Trump to discharge from hospital on Monday. Financial markets cheered across the board with equities, bonds, and commodities bounce back strongly. Besides, the dollar slips further on improving sentiment. In addition to this news, more stimulus hopes to the U.S. economy are improving the risk sentiment.

 Neither technical nor the fundamentals helping the oil price: 

Technically speaking, we have found three factors that could drive the coming sessions.

1. Brent crude oil traced out near-term price support near $39.50-38.80 via the formation of a double bottom pattern. In contrast, the price lost 100MA and is still trading below that key moving average.
2. The lower low and lower high pattern suggest $37 is the next destination in the near-term, but, as anticipated, the 50MA crossover the 200MA called the Golden crossover pattern.

3. The RSI has been printing a positive divergence on the daily chart, so do the oscillator.

Turning to fundamental news, supply-side concerns are hurting the recent bullish sentiment. Libyan oil production has risen by about 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) from last week to reach 290,000 bpd as exports ramp up. A Libyan oil source told Reuters on Monday on anonymity condition, according to Reuters.

• According to S&P Platts Oil, Saudi Arabia’s domestic crude oil stockpiles have climbed to the highest since the coronavirus pandemic hit the market hardest in April, with analysts saying Asian refineries are struggling to keep up with term commitments.

Looking ahead, traders are waiting for OPEC World Oil Outlook via videoconference in Vienna on October 08. OPEC’s Secretary-General, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, will present the WOO’s major findings (World Oil Outlook). Recently OPEC published a bearish forecast for 2020 and 2021. In its latest MOMR published on September 14, OPEC said demand in this year to shrink by 9.46 mb/d and for 2021, the demand to grow by 6.62 mb/d.

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