Gold Above $3,000: Beginning of a New Era or Final Surge? Technical, Macro, and Seasonal Analysis

Introduction

Gold prices have maintained an upward trajectory in recent months, fueled by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, ETF inflows, and a weaker U.S. dollar. In February 2025, gold hit new record highs, touching $2,936.85 per ounce before settling at $2,835 by month-end. While we are writing, the precious metal already broke above $3000, so the question now is whether gold is consolidating before a further push higher or if the rally is losing steam.

This report examines gold’s market behavior through three key lenses: technical trends, macroeconomic influences, and seasonal tendencies.

1. Technical Analysis: Strong Uptrend, but Overbought Conditions?

Gold has demonstrated strong bullish momentum in recent months, setting record highs across multiple currencies.

The bullish breakout above $3,000 per ounce marks a historic milestone, propelling gold into uncharted territory beyond all-time highs. From a strictly technical perspective, the absence of upper resistance levels suggests no immediate barriers to further upside momentum.

In the short term, the fair value area from recent sessions ranges between $3,010 and $2,974, with a prominent high-volume node (HVN) at $2,990, which may serve as initial support. Below this, the next key support level lies around $2,975. A breakdown of these levels could prompt the market to rebalance a low-volume zone identified on the weekly composite profile, extending toward $2,960.

Further downside would bring the market into a broader fair value zone between $2,960 and $2,940, where the primary support is defined by a low-volume node (LVN) at $2,939. A breach of this threshold could lead to a test of the weekly point of control (POC), currently positioned around $2,924.

2. Macroeconomic Drivers: Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset

Several macroeconomic factors are currently supporting gold’s strength:

Dollar Weakness & Rate Expectations

• The U.S. dollar has weakened due to expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025.
• Markets are pricing in at least three rate cuts by year-end, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Geopolitical Uncertainty & Risk-Off Sentiment

• The fading of the “Trump Trade” (strong dollar and equities) has shifted capital toward safe-haven assets like gold.
• Increased global defense spending and rising deficits, particularly in Europe, have boosted gold’s appeal.

Gold ETF Flows: Institutional Demand Remains Strong

• February 2025 saw massive net inflows of $9.4 billion (100 tons) into gold ETFs, the strongest month since March 2022.
• This surge suggests institutional investors are positioning for prolonged macro uncertainty.

Inflation Pressures & Stagflation Risks

• Despite slowing global growth, inflation expectations remain elevated, supporting gold as an inflation hedge.
• U.S. consumer sentiment has weakened, indicating fears of stagflation—a scenario historically bullish for gold.

Implications

The macroeconomic backdrop remains highly supportive of gold, particularly in an environment of lower interest rates, rising government deficits, and heightened geopolitical risks.

3. Seasonal Analysis: End of March – Mid May Strength Historically Common

Historically, gold has exhibited strong seasonal trends:

• End of March – Mid May Performance: Gold often sees renewed buying interest in early spring, aligning with historical patterns of strong Q1 performance.
• Central Bank Purchases: Q1 tends to be a period of strong demand from central banks, adding further tailwinds.
• Physical Demand: With Chinese and Indian festivals in Q2, demand for physical gold could provide additional support, even if Q2 generally is not bullish for Gold from a seasonal point of view.

Implications

Seasonal factors suggest gold could see continued strength into Q2, especially if macroeconomic uncertainty persists.

Conclusion: Gold’s Rally Supported, But Short-Term Caution Warranted

While gold remains in a strong uptrend, short-term technical indicators suggest a potential pullback before further gains. Macro drivers—such as a weaker dollar, rate cut expectations, and heightened geopolitical risks—continue to provide a supportive environment. Additionally, ETF inflows highlight strong institutional demand.
Gold remains a preferred asset in the current macroeconomic climate, with strong fundamentals and seasonal trends supporting its continued strength.